THE EMPLOYMENT SITUATION — JUNE 2011
(excerpted from U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Report, July 8 2011)

Nonfarm payroll employment was essentially unchanged in June (+18,000), and the unemployment rate was little changed at 9.2 percent.

Employment in most major private-sector industries changed little over the month. Government employment continued to trend down.

Household Survey Data

The number of unemployed persons is 14.1 million.

The unemployment rate is 9.2 percent.

Since March, the number of unemployed persons has increased by 545,000, and the unemployment rate has risen by 0.4 percentage points.

The labor force is at 153.4 million.

The number of persons unemployed for less than 5 weeks increased by 412,000 in June.

The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks and over)

was essentially unchanged over the month, at 6.3 million, and accounted for 44.4 percent of the unemployed.

Establishment Survey Data

Following gains averaging 215,000 per month from February through April,

employment has been essentially flat for the past 2 months.

Excepted from: http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

In their own words…. “Estately was created with the belief that home buyers need context when they’re looking for a home. At Estately you can learn about the surrounding area, the nearby shops, the character of the neighborhood and the style, size and price of a property.”

Maxsell Real Estate agents are part of the Estately network

Estately matches people who are going to buy or sell a home with the best agents from dozens of local real estate brokerages based on their area, their needs, and feedback from previous clients. When consumers sign up to work with an agent, the Estately team matches them with the best local experts for their needs. A wide variety of great agents work with estately, but all share devotion to helping their clients.   When a client who comes from Estately completes a successful transaction, the agent is charged a 20% referral fee.

Atlanta Listings Added

Earlier this month, they announced the addition of their tenth metropolitan market as they bring Atlanta under their fold. Adding 127,000 listings from two Georgia MLS databases, it now brings the total number of properties for sale on Estately.com to over 459,000.

Joel Burslem, Future of Real Estate Marketing, recently had this to say… “Estately’s search tool is a very robust and impressive product, as I’ve noted a number of times in the past. It’s one of my favorite search destinations on the web. I especially like their transit search tool which calculates a property’s distance from a particular transit line. In Atlanta, you can now do these kind of searches in proximity to the MARTA line.”

Check out the results for Woodstock’s 30188 zip code:

Disclaimer:  Brad Nix is Estately’s licensed broker in the state of Georgia.

Roger Tutterow Ph.D. and Dean of Economics at Mercer University gave his opinion to Sally’s Roundtable on the Recession of 08’ as it relates to Atlanta Real Estate.

Credit Markets

As far back as July 2007, Wall Street began to question the true value of Mortgage Backed Securities. Interesting how it really became a household word in recent months. Either way, banks are continuing to search for ways to loan money to the masses. The original bailout for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac was probably the smartest move that Washington could have made. In essence, it allows lenders the ability to continue to bundle loans together and sell them to a company that is backed by the full faith and credit of the US government.

Banks, mortgage brokers, etc are in the business to originate loans. Most do not have a true mechanism to keep them in house and actually hold for 30 years. Therefore, without the ability to bundle and sell, loans would not be written.

Good News!

We are at or past the bottom of the Real Estate curve in GA. Home prices have stabilized and inventories are flattening. With the ability to actually borrow money at still all time low rates, the expectation is that the best deals will sell first which would include Pristine foreclosures, New deeply discounted homes from builders, and resales where the owner can take a loss to get a better deal on a more expensive home.

As an aside, I was working with a retired buyer couple from Florida and during the conversation we were comparing markets between Orlando and Woodstock. Since they are so similar (right!) they had the expectation that they would be able to move here, buy a home for about 60 cents on the dollar, and retire, again. The reality was that it was not going to happen unless they wanted a real fixer upper. In Woodstock, a $300,000 home is still affordable to many individuals and this price point recognizes the high end of activity in the area. In this case, I suggested we look at foreclosed builder homes or homes between $500k and $800k if they truly wanted to get a 30% discount. In the end, some people will let expectations driven by their local market or worse, driven by the national news, get in the way of truly a great buy. So what do we have to look forward to?

In 6 months or so, those with little to no equity will see a more stabilized and active market. Today, there is no place to go but up and do not let the Evening News Talking Heads tell you differently. Our problems are nothing like so many others. Real Estate is Local and it is not as bad as others would think.

Roger Tutterow Ph.D. and Dean of Economics at Mercer University gave his opinion to Sally’s Roundtable on the Recession of 08’ as it relates to Atlanta Real Estate.

Housing

In the metro Atlanta area, Existing home sales are down about 38% (units) and new sales are down 68%. In itself, these figures create an over inventory of homes which causes a longer time on market. However, this news is not all bad either.

If you are a watcher of the National Evening News, we have been told that housing prices have dropped at staggering numbers 20%, 30%, 32%. In metro Atlanta, those numbers simply AIN’T true. All Real Estate Markets are local! The city of Atlanta is very different from Marietta or Woodstock, GA and especially Coastal Florida, I-95 from Northern Virginia to Maine, and Napa, LA, and Vegas. The best estimate is that the average home price in Metro Atlanta has slipped about 6-8% in the last year which equals about two years of appreciation for the average homeowner.

Good News: Though it will take longer to sell your home, you should expect a selling price that can actually make a sale worthwhile.

What about foreclosures?

Many of us recognize that GA led the nation in foreclosures over the past year. There are a couple of reasons for that: Atlanta and the “burbs” has a lower average age for first time homebuyers than in comparison to most of the nation. So my opinion is that many of those college grads were some of the same one’s who had school loans, credit cards, new cars, and a huge appetite of I want it now.

I want it now truly became available to first time buyers by the creation of creative financing. Zero down payment, Discounted ARM’s, low credit score, and Excessive Seller contributions allowed a family with an income of less than $75,000 to buy a home at $350,000+. Those days are gone for now as borrowers are seeking FHA financing and Plain Vanilla 30 year fixed rate mortgages. Why? Those are the only kinds of loans available.

Secondly and more importantly, Georgia is a Non-Judicial Foreclosure State. In short, this means that the lender does not have to sue a delinquent borrower in court to get control of the home. In many states, like California, it can take 4-6 months for a lender to actually take a home back in foreclosure. In Georgia, you have 30 days and it will be sold on the courthouse steps to the highest bidder.

Most of the homes that builders have defaulted on have been taken back by the banks which present a real opportunity for those who can buy now. Most homes will be sold for much less than original price – builder profit. In addition, there is a great chance that the final price can include additional concessions from the local bank that now owns the property. (IE: a further reduction in price, a better loan, upgrades, etc.) Work with a Realtor who can think outside the box. When you are getting a deal, do not dwell on trying to beat the bank up. Search for opportunities to get things you want, albeit at a great price. Check out Atlanta Foreclosures to see some great houses that meet this requirement. Atlanta is still affordable!

The expectation is that homes that are occupied will see fewer and fewer foreclosures as time progresses. Interest rates are being manipulated by the Federal Reserve and the “Bailout” has been designed to allow homeowners an opportunity to refinance in order to avoid foreclosure. Just yesterday, a number of mortgage companies were offering rates in the high 4% and low 5% range, almost 1% point lower than earlier in the week. As a result, there should be no reason to expect a further increase in the number of monthly foreclosures.

What are your thoughts on foreclosure? Do you have a tale to tell?  comment below

Post 1 of 3 in the Atlanta Real Estate Recovery series (energy, housing, credit).

Yesterday, Roger Tutterow Ph.D. and Dean of Economics at Mercer University gave his opinion to Sally’s Roundtable on the Recession of 08’ as it relates to Atlanta Real Estate. It was great to hear that it seems we are now at or past the bottom of the curve and the expectation is that in late 2nd Qtr and Early 3rd Qtr 2009, we will see a noticeable improvement in some key statistics.  As this information will address a number of issues, I will publish this as a series throughout the week. Be sure to check back often to read the next update on the Atlanta Real Estate Recovery.  Forbes magazine also projects job growth for Atlanta as a catalyst for recovery.

Here are some notes and facts as presented by Tutterow, along with my personal commentary:

Experts Announced: US Economy is in Recession

Not that we all would not believe it! Our friends on the news like to say a recession is when there are two consecutive quarter’s of negative growth. That is incorrect. A recession involves looking at the following sectors and establishing negative trends in all of them: Manufacturing and Trade Sales, Personal Income Levels, Non-Farm Payrolls, and Industrial Output. So while we know that a recession is upon us, it is usually months after the fact that the data will prove it.

What we do know is that this is not going to be as bad as the Great Depression but will resemble the deep recessions of the 80’s.

3 Contributing Factors of the Current Economy

1) Energy Costs

Since the Worldwide recession of 2001-2002, all international economies were growing at a staggering rate. The BRIC nations of Brazil, Russia, India, and China held some of the leading growth rates and thus created a higher demand for all commodities: Oil, Metals, etc. So as oil prices grew at staggering rates, speculation began to take place in the form of long positions on oil futures that pushed the price of oil from $100 to up to $150/barrel.

Now that the world is in yet another recession, oil prices have dropped to $45/barrel in a short period of time as demand has decreased and speculators eliminate long futures. The target price for oil may be $65/barrel.

This affects the economy in two ways: Driving costs and Manufacturing costs. It is estimated that $4.00/gallon gas in Georgia costs the average driver about $2,000.00 additional per year. If you have two wage earners in the family, this could easily double. So to break it down to real impact, out of each paycheck, the average employee will spend an additional $75 out of pocket per paycheck. This money was no longer spent on clothing, movies, eating out, etc. This had a tremendous effect on the state of the economy.

More importantly are the costs that we as consumers do not recognize. Second to labor costs, energy costs are extremely expensive in manufacturing. Converting raw materials and delivering goods has squeezed the bottom lines of most companies and could have resulted in higher prices paid at the register, had the price of energy remained at all time highs.

In the end, the single largest positive news is that we are looking better than worse. Oil and other commodity prices have dropped with the strengthening of the US Dollar and the lack of demand on the worldwide stage. This will make large differences in manufacturing costs, disposable income, and Industrial Output. In addition, the Consumer Confidence level will rise as predictability becomes more evident. Quite simply, who would by a home when the price of gasoline is $4.00/gallon and rising? Not many, I am sure as evidenced by recent sales data. Now that we are seeing $1.60/gallon is it reasonable to assume that some of the uncertainty is going away?

This is not another “Now is a Great Time to Buy” real estate article.  It’s just some simple facts of the Atlanta real estate investor grade market.  Investor grade is a starter-home property ready and suitable for renting or resale.  The analysis was conducted by a third party company, PortReal, LLC.  PortReal benchmarks investor grade pricing using the 15th percentile price point in the market.  They believe investor grade housing shapes supply/demand for the overall housing market by defining a clearing price for investors.

Many people have believed this is a trickle-up recession that began when the starter-home market became over-inflated and loans were given to those who should not have had one the first place.  By correcting this first home market, a recovery could begin to follow.  So, let’s see how PortReal validates their 37% Underpriced Investor Grade Market…

A 3 bedroom investor grade property in metro Atlanta is estimated to cost $104,500.  The rents produced from 3 bedrooms properties are sufficient to cover operating and financing costs (80% LTV @6.46%) of a $166,811 property.  Therefore, $166,811 – $104,500 = $62,311 divided by $166,811= 37.35% below the investor grade benchmark.

Granted there is still a high amount of inventory to burn through, but the good sign is there is enough incentive now for investors to take risks and buy the investor grade properties. Thereby reducing the inventory and forcing a trickle-up rebound as start home sellers become move-up buyers.

Atlanta Real Estate Investment Market Report by PortReal

A Serious Recession Has Set In

While the NBER will not likely get around to declaring when a recession began until late January or early February, there is little doubt a serious recession has set in. Real GDP declined at a modest 0.3 percent pace in the third quarter and more recent data have been decidedly more negative. Nonfarm payrolls fell 240,000 in October, following a much larger-than-initially-reported 279,000 job loss in September. Not only has the pace of economic decline intensified but it has also broadened considerably. Both the ISM manufacturing and non-manufacturing surveys fell well-below their key break-even level of 50 in October. The pace of layoff announcements has also picked up, as has the list of firms announcing earnings disappointments. While lending among banks has improved, the credit crunch is still abundantly evident virtually everywhere else. Underwriting criteria for home mortgages and consumer loans remain exceptionally tight and terms are far less generous than they have been anytime this decade. Lending for commercial real estate has all but dried up and the list of delayed and canceled projects has skyrocketed. Even state and local governments are scaling back. We expect policymakers to continue to work to offset this weakness, with a new stimulus package; likely to be passed during the lame duck congressional session.

Not exactly peaches and cream, but at least we are acknowledging the facts. Now, let’s start charting a course for improvement.

View the entire november economic report.

As always, thanks to David Bell, VP, Wachovia Business Banking for providing us with the Wachovia Economic Report.

Image by Deep Frozen Shutterbug via Flickr

I like to read Bloomberg.com.  Their articles are more analytical than you will ever find at CNBC.  However, while perusing an article on durable goods numbers, the typical doom and gloom from economists bemoaned the 1.1 percent September drop in orders.  Of course, in August, the drop in orders was 4.1 percent.

Why the long face?  Even with my University of Georgia Political Science degree, this tells me that the drops in orders is in a declining curve.  I might be that eternal optimist looking for that pony – I know it’s there somewhere, but looking at the different dots, I see a better future.

One other thing that really confuses me too about media reports – these numbers are snapshots that have absolutely no relevance whatsoever without context.  Yup, there is no question that the real estate market is down this year.  However, that is this year.  It won’t be down forever, and rather than biting my nails and looking for more bad news, I tend to look at the tea leaves to determine when we might see another upturn.

It makes more sense to be ready for the opportunities when they come than to be so busy crying in my soup that I miss the next wave.  It is a lot more fun to be sitting on the surf board looking for the next wave – just be careful of sharks!

Be vigilent – that wave is coming – look at the curve for declining home sales over the last several months.  pretty soon that curve will look just like a smile!

[youtube]Cus4opgTJb0[/youtube]